RISP batting average is how a hitter does with a runner on second or third
RISP average is hits with RISP ÷ at-bats with RISP. RISP means runners in scoring position: at least one runner on second or third base, where a single can bring him home. A runner on first only, or an empty diamond, is not scoring position.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) went 30-for-107 with RISP in 2026, a .280 RISP average. Take his season line (523 AB, 144 H) and remove the RISP at-bats, and he hit .274 in 416 AB with 114 H outside RISP. That is a gap of +.006, well inside the luck range: with 107 AB, a hitter with identical skill in both situations can land anywhere from .179 to .369 (95%) by chance. For contrast, Yandy Díaz (TB) hit .370 with RISP (44 H in 119 AB) against .275 otherwise, a gap of +.095 that sits outside the 95% range.
Why look at RISP average separately
RISP average is the number broadcasts and game stories reach for most when they call someone a good hitter with runners on. But RISP at-bats are only about a quarter of a season's at-bats, so the number swings a lot. This calculator shows the average together with whether the gap is inside or outside the range that luck alone can produce.
- Checking a number from the broadcast: if a hitter is "hitting .400 with RISP," see how many at-bats that is and what he hit outside RISP. Then you can judge whether he really changes in those spots.
- Setting a lineup for a rec-league or school team: put your players' numbers in the lineup table and get each hitter's RISP average plus the team total on one screen. You will also see that with about 15 RISP AB, one hit moves the average by more than .060.
- Comparing two hitters in fantasy or a stats debate: state the RISP gap between two hitters as a number of hits, and how many at-bats the same gap would have to hold before luck stops being a good explanation.
- Measuring against the league: place a line on the distribution of 2026 qualified hitters in KBO, MLB and NPB to see roughly where it ranks.
How to use it
- In row 1 of the lineup table, enter a name plus RISP AB and RISP hits. Copy them from the scoring-position line of a splits table, such as the situational tab on a KBO Records Room player page.
- To compare with non-RISP, also enter season AB and season hits. If you leave them blank, the calculator compares with the 2026 league average of the league you picked above.
- On the readout, check the RISP average, the non-RISP and season averages, the gap and the verdict. On the scale, check whether the RISP marker (◆) sits inside the gray band, the range luck alone produces.
- Add hitters, up to 10. Each row gets a dumbbell (○ non-RISP → ◆ RISP), and with two or more hitters a team total appears at the bottom. Press a row number or the total button to switch the readout to that line.
- Copy table puts a table on the clipboard that pastes straight into a spreadsheet. Copy link copies an address that reopens the same lineup.
How it is calculated
Which base situations count as scoring position
There are eight base situations, and the six with a runner on second or third are scoring position. The scoring-position line in the KBO Records Room situation table is likewise the sum of those six lines. Koo Ja Wook's (Samsung) 133 AB with RISP in 2026 add up from 40 with a runner on second, 9 on third, 41 on first and second, 15 on first and third, 12 on second and third, and 16 with the bases loaded.
| Base situation | Scoring position | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Bases empty | No | No runner to score |
| First | No | A runner on first usually needs an extra-base hit to score |
| Second | Yes | Can score on a single |
| Third | Yes | Can score on a single or a fly ball to the outfield |
| First and second | Yes | The runner on second |
| First and third | Yes | The runner on third |
| Second and third | Yes | The runners on second and third |
| Bases loaded | Yes | The runners on second and third |
The formulas
- RISP average = hits with RISP ÷ at-bats with RISP. Walks, hit-by-pitches, sacrifice bunts and sacrifice flies are not at-bats. With 150 RISP plate appearances, 20 walks and 5 sac flies, you have that many fewer RISP at-bats.
- Non-RISP average = (season hits − RISP hits) ÷ (season AB − RISP AB). The season average already contains the RISP at-bats, so to see whether a hitter changes with RISP, compare with non-RISP.
- Gap = RISP average − non-RISP average. The screen shows the difference between the two values rounded to three decimals.
- Luck range: if true skill is the same in both situations, the size the gap wobbles by chance (the standard error) is √(p × (1 − p) × (1 ÷ RISP AB + 1 ÷ non-RISP AB)), where p is the season average. A gap within 1 standard error is inside the 68% range, and within 1.96 is inside the 95% range. With no season line, the league average is p and the formula is √(p × (1 − p) ÷ RISP AB).
- RISP AB needed to leave the 95% range = 1.96² × p × (1 − p) × (1 + RISP AB ÷ non-RISP AB) ÷ gap². This assumes at-bats grow in the same proportion and the gap stays the same.
Reading the average
Batting average is shown to three decimals, so .414 means 414 hits per 1,000 AB. What matters for small samples is the weight of a single hit, 1 ÷ RISP AB. With 133 RISP AB, one hit moves the average by 1 ÷ 133 = .0075, which is 7.5 on the third decimal. The calculator shows this as "Weight of one hit."
Five MLB hitters in 2026
Calculated from the 2026 MLB Stats API scoring-position splits and each player's season line (regular season). Rank is the RISP average rank among the 135 hitters who qualified (502 plate appearances).
| Hitter | RISP | Non-RISP | Season | Gap | Verdict | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani (LAD) | .280 (107 AB, 30 H) | .274 (416 AB, 114 H) | .275 (523 AB, 144 H) | +.006 | Inside 68% | 58th |
| Jung Hoo Lee (SF) | .274 (113 AB, 31 H) | .277 (426 AB, 118 H) | .276 (539 AB, 149 H) | −.003 | Inside 68% | 61st |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | .213 (160 AB, 34 H) | .294 (385 AB, 113 H) | .270 (545 AB, 147 H) | −.081 | Inside 95% (z −1.94, near the edge) | 116th |
| Yandy Díaz (TB) | .370 (119 AB, 44 H) | .275 (495 AB, 136 H) | .293 (614 AB, 180 H) | +.095 | Outside 95% (z 2.04) | 1st |
| Freddie Freeman (LAD) | .281 (139 AB, 39 H) | .291 (440 AB, 128 H) | .288 (579 AB, 167 H) | −.010 | Inside 68% | 57th |
| All five | .279 (638 AB, 178 H) | .282 (2,162 AB, 609 H) | .281 (2,800 AB, 787 H) | −.003 | Inside 68% | — |
Ohtani's 95% range with 107 RISP AB is .179 to .369. Had he hit his non-RISP average, he would have collected about 29 hits with RISP; he actually had 30. One hit is worth ±.0093 of average at that sample size. Suzuki is the opposite case: at his non-RISP average he would have had about 47 hits with RISP, and he had 34. If the same gap continued, it would leave the 95% range at 164 RISP AB. Díaz would have been expected to get about 33 hits and had 44, which ranks first among the 135. Add the five hitters together and the gap nearly disappears: .279 with RISP, .282 without.
How much does a small RISP sample swing
Even if a .270 hitter hits exactly to his skill, his RISP average moves up and down by chance within the range below when the at-bats are few (95% range, formula based on the league average).
| RISP AB | Range luck alone produces | Weight of one hit | Roughly this much |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | .270 ± .195 | .050 | A rec-league season |
| 50 | .270 ± .123 | .020 | About a third of a pro regular's season |
| 100 | .270 ± .087 | .010 | A bit less than a regular's season |
| 150 | .270 ± .071 | .0067 | A middle-of-the-order season |
| 300 | .270 ± .050 | .0033 | A little over two seasons |
| 600 | .270 ± .036 | .0017 | Four-plus seasons |
FanGraphs cites research that batting average needs about 910 AB before it starts to reflect skill. The median RISP AB for the 135 qualified MLB hitters in 2026 was 125, less than a seventh of that. Their RISP averages had a standard deviation of .049, while a calculation that holds every hitter's non-RISP average fixed and adds only luck gives a spread of .039. Season averages had a standard deviation of only .026, so most of why RISP averages spread out so much more is the small sample.
Why the league RISP average runs a bit high
Add up the 30 MLB teams in 2026 and RISP hitters went 9,941-for-39,390, a .252 average, against 29,908-for-123,939, .241, outside RISP. That is 11 points higher with RISP. But a sacrifice fly needs a runner on third, so all 1,298 of them came with RISP, and a sacrifice fly is not an at-bat. Count those 1,298 as outs in at-bats and the RISP average becomes .244, nearly the same as .241 outside RISP. The 2025 season shows .255 against .242 until you add 1,307 sac flies, which gives .246.
KBO and NPB do not publish league-wide RISP at-bats, so the same tendency was checked with qualified hitters. In 2026, 37 of 49 qualified KBO hitters, 30 of 45 in NPB and 80 of 135 in MLB had a RISP average above their season average. Medians (RISP, season) were .313 and .288 in KBO, .286 and .271 in NPB, and .267 and .258 in MLB. A RISP average a bit above the season average is common, and by itself it does not show that a hitter is better with runners on.
Common mistakes
- Dividing by plate appearances: the denominator of RISP average is RISP at-bats, not RISP plate appearances. Remove walks, hit-by-pitches, sacrifice bunts and sacrifice flies.
- Counting a sacrifice fly as an out in at-bats: a sac fly earns an RBI but is not an at-bat. If you count it, your RISP average comes out lower than the official figure.
- Including situations with only a runner on first: a runner on first alone is not scoring position. First and third, and bases loaded, are.
- Comparing straight to the season average: the season average already includes the RISP at-bats, so the gap looks smaller than it is. Koo Ja Wook is +.043 over his season average but +.062 over his non-RISP average.
- Using RBI with runners in scoring position in place of RISP average: RBI in those spots depend heavily on how often the hitters ahead of him were on base. Look at average and RBI separately.
- Averaging the players' averages to get a team RISP average: for the team, add up all the RISP at-bats and hits first and then divide. The total row in the lineup table does it that way.
- Calling someone a clutch hitter from one season of RISP average: FanGraphs explains that its Clutch stat, which measures performance in high-leverage spots, describes the past well but does very little to predict the future. See whether the gap holds up across several seasons added together.
Limits
- The luck range is an approximation that assumes plate appearances are independent and that true skill is the same with and without RISP. It does not account for the opposing pitcher, outs, score, ballpark or defensive shifts.
- "Outside 95%" means a gap that luck alone rarely produces, not proof that the gap is skill. Among every 20 qualified hitters, about one can land outside 95% with no skill difference at all.
- League comparison values are the final 2026 regular-season records, with no postseason. The NPB league average uses Central League totals without pitchers' batting.
- KBO and NPB do not publish league-wide RISP at-bats, so league comparison there uses only the official RISP averages of qualified hitters (three decimals), and ranks compare those visible values.
- If you enter the same name and the same RISP average as an example hitter, that hitter is left out when the rank is counted.
- Nothing you enter is sent to a server; the math runs in this browser. The lineup goes into the address only when you edit a value or press Copy link, and nothing is saved.
As of The scoring-position definition and the at-bat rules were checked on 2026-10-23 against the original Baseball-Reference Bullpen and MLB Glossary pages. League comparisons and the example records were calculated the same day from 2026 regular-season records at the KBO Records Room, MLB official stats (Stats API) and Sports Navi.
Sources
- 01Baseball-Reference Bullpen — Scoring positionDefines runners on second or third as scoring-position runners; a runner on first needs an extra-base hit, while runners on second or third can score on a single
- 02KBO Records Room — Player situation splits (Koo Ja Wook)Ten base-situation lines (none on, first … loaded, runners on, scoring position); 2026 regular season, 133 AB, 55 H, .414 with RISP
- 03KBO Records Room — Player batting records (Basic 2)RISP (scoring-position average) column; 49 qualified hitters, 2026 regular season
- 04MLB Glossary — At-bat (AB)An at-bat is charged only when a batter reaches on a hit, error or fielder's choice, or makes a non-sacrifice out; it is the denominator of batting average
- 05MLB Glossary — Sacrifice Fly (SF)A sacrifice fly is an RBI but not an at-bat, so it does not count against batting average
- 06MLB Stats API — 2026 team hitting with scoring positionSum over 30 teams of RISP at-bats, hits and sacrifice flies (39,390 AB, 9,941 H, 1,298 SF); RISP lines for the 135 qualified hitters
- 07FanGraphs Library — Sample SizeBatting average (AVG) stabilizes at about 910 AB (Russell Carleton's study)
- 08FanGraphs Library — ClutchA usual .300 hitter hitting .300 in important spots is not clutch; clutch describes the past but has little power to predict the future
- 09Sports Navi — NPB team player batting statsRISP average for each player on 12 teams; 45 qualified hitters, 2026 regular season
Frequently asked questions
How do you calculate RISP batting average?
Divide hits with RISP by at-bats with RISP. A hitter who went 55-for-133 has 55 ÷ 133 = .414. The denominator is at-bats, not plate appearances, so walks, hit-by-pitches, sacrifice bunts and sacrifice flies in those situations are left out.
Do first and third, or bases loaded, count as scoring position?
Yes. Any time there is a runner on second or third, it is scoring position. Of the eight base situations, six count: second, third, first and second, first and third, second and third, and bases loaded. Bases empty and a runner on first only do not.
Does a sacrifice fly with RISP count as an at-bat?
No. A sac fly is credited with an RBI but is not an at-bat, so it drops out of the denominator of RISP average. Because a sac fly needs a runner on third, every one comes with RISP, and that is a big reason the league-wide RISP average runs a bit high.
If a hitter's RISP average is above his season average, is he a clutch hitter?
That alone is hard to say. In 2026, 80 of the 135 qualified MLB hitters had a RISP average above their season average. Compare with his non-RISP average and check whether the gap is inside the luck range for his RISP at-bats. FanGraphs also notes that its Clutch stat for high-leverage spots does very little to predict the future.
What is a good RISP batting average?
The median RISP average among 2026 qualified hitters was .267 in MLB, .313 in KBO and .286 in NPB. Leagues differ in overall level, so comparing with the median of the same league is more accurate, and the calculator also shows the rank among qualified hitters of the league you pick.
Why is the league-wide RISP average higher than the season average?
Because sacrifice flies are not at-bats. The 2026 MLB RISP average was .252 against .241 outside RISP, but if you count the 1,298 sac flies, all of which came with RISP, as outs in at-bats, the RISP average becomes .244 and the gap nearly disappears.
How many RISP at-bats is enough to trust?
There is no fixed line, but the smaller the sample, the bigger the swings. A .270 hitter can land anywhere within ±.087 of that by luck alone in 100 RISP AB, and within ±.123 in 50. FanGraphs cites research that batting average needs about 910 AB before it starts to reflect skill.
How do you get a team RISP average?
Add up the players' RISP at-bats and RISP hits first, then divide. Averaging the players' RISP averages gives too much weight to hitters with few at-bats and comes out wrong. With two or more hitters in the lineup table, the total row does it this way.