On Sep 10, 2026 the Dodgers' magic number was 6
A magic number counts how many more combined wins by the leader and losses by its rival it takes to clinch first place. On Sep 10, 2026 the Dodgers were 89-57 and the Padres, their closest chaser by losses, were 78-68. In the calculator above the Dodgers' magic number is 6 (against the Padres), and MLB's own standings data showed the same 6. The Dodgers also had a clinch on their own at 6 wins, meaning 6 wins from the 16 games left settled it whatever the other teams did.
Where no game ends in a tie, the familiar formula, games in the season + 1 − the leader's wins − the rival's losses, gives the same answer: 162 + 1 − 89 − 68 = 6. It stops matching in leagues that drop ties from the win percentage. KBO standings are one example. When KT led Samsung on Sep 27, the calculator gave 8, while the classic formula gave 12 (see the table below).
How to use it
- Pick the league: KBO is 144 games, MLB 162 and NPB 143. For any other league choose Custom and type the number of games.
- Enter wins, losses and ties for each team: copy the numbers from the standings. Games left are the season length minus games played. You can enter up to 10 teams.
- Mark our team: click the circle at the left of a row. The magic and elimination numbers are calculated for that team, which does not have to be in first place.
- Choose how ties are handled: pick "Not clinched" if a tie would be settled by a tiebreaker game or you do not know, or pick the side that wins the tie if you know it.
- Read the result: the big number is the magic number for first place, with the number of games left beside it. In the win percentage ladder, each team's bar runs from its win percentage if it loses every remaining game to the one if it wins them all.
- Try the next game: click a cell under "Next game outcomes" to enter that result in the standings and recalculate. Use Undo to go back.
How it is calculated
Compare two teams, A and B. Assume A wins x of its remaining games and loses the rest, while B loses y of its remaining games and wins the rest. If A's win percentage is still higher than B's after that worst case for A, A is guaranteed to finish above B. The magic number is the smallest value k such that every split with x + y = k meets that condition.
- Leagues without ties: when both teams play the full schedule, comparing percentages is the same as comparing wins, and the magic number is games in the season + 1 − A's wins − B's losses. The MLB Glossary gives the same formula as "Games remaining +1 - (Losses by second place team - losses by first place team)".
- Leagues that exclude ties from win percentage (KBO, NPB): win percentage is W ÷ (W + L). A's lowest possible percentage is A's wins ÷ (A's wins + A's losses + A's games left), and B's highest is (B's wins + B's games left) ÷ (B's wins + B's losses + B's games left). When the two teams have different numbers of ties, the denominators differ and the answer no longer matches the classic formula.
- Several teams: to finish first a team must beat every other team, so the calculator finds a magic number against each and shows the largest as the magic number for first place. The elimination (tragic) number is the opposite count, A's losses plus B's wins until B is guaranteed to finish above A, and the smallest one across rivals is shown.
- Clinch on your own: this counts the wins A needs if every other team wins all of its remaining games. If it is larger than A's games left, the calculator shows "Not possible" and A needs other teams to lose.
Here is KT against Samsung on Sep 27, 2026 written out. The formula lines under the calculator have the same shape.
| Step | Formula | Value |
|---|---|---|
| KT lowest pct | (81 + x) ÷ (81 + 49 + 10) | .579 when x = 0 |
| Samsung highest pct | (78 + 11 − y) ÷ (78 + 52 + 11) | .631 when y = 0 |
| Clinch condition | 141x + 140y > 1,039 | x + y = 7 gives at most 987, not enough |
| Magic number | x + y ≥ 8 | 8 gives at least 1,120, enough |
How ties changed the magic number in the 2026 KBO
We recalculated the 2026 KT and Samsung race from the KBO record room's daily standings. The percentage-based values matched a fan wiki's daily magic number log on every day it listed. Counting wins only gives 1 or 2 more, and the classic formula gives 4 or 5 more.
| After games on | KT (W-L-T) | Samsung (W-L-T) | Win pct basis | Wins only | Classic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 27 | 81-49-4 | 78-52-3 | 8 | 9 | 12 |
| Oct 1 | 84-49-4 | 81-52-3 | 5 | 6 | 9 |
| Oct 3 | 85-49-4 | 82-52-3 | 4 | 5 | 8 |
| Oct 4 | 85-49-5 | 82-53-3 | 2 | 4 | 7 |
| Oct 5 | 86-49-5 | 82-54-3 | 0 · clinched | 2 | 5 |
"Wins only" is Samsung's maximum possible wins − KT's wins + 1, and "Classic" is 144 + 1 − KT's wins − Samsung's losses. The classic formula counts Samsung's 3 ties as games Samsung could still win, so it comes out largest. On Oct 4 KT tied and Samsung lost, and the magic number fell from 4 to 2. A Samsung loss alone would have made it 3, and so would a KT tie alone. A tie shrinks the denominator of the win percentage and lifts the leader's lowest possible percentage, so in a percentage league even a tie can cut the magic number.
A Korean news report from Oct 6 said KT clinched first place on Oct 5 at 86 wins, 5 ties and 49 losses, and that the order would not change even if Samsung won all 5 remaining games and KT lost all 4. Samsung would reach 87 wins, more than KT's 86, but 87 ÷ 141 = .617 is below KT's lowest possible percentage of 86 ÷ 139 = .619.
When looking only at second place is wrong
The reference team is not simply whoever is second today. It is the team that can hold on longest. The MLB Glossary says the second-place team in terms of total losses must always be used as the barometer. A third-place team with more games left can have a higher best-case percentage than the team just above it. The calculator works out a magic number against every team, shows the largest as the number for first place, and lists each team's magic and elimination numbers beside the ladder.
The NL West on Sep 10, 2026 shows how this works. Measured against the Dodgers (89-57), the Padres (78-68) had a magic number of 6 and the D-backs (78-69) had 5. Both teams had won 78 games, but the Padres had one fewer loss, so they set the reference. The magic number for first was 6, matching MLB's standings data.
League rules for ties
| League | Games | Ranked by | If win percentages are equal |
|---|---|---|---|
| KBO | 144 per team (16 against each club) | Win percentage, ties excluded | Two clubs tied for 1st or 5th: tiebreaker game. Three or more: no game; head-to-head wins, then head-to-head runs scored, then previous season rank. Ties for 2nd to 4th follow the same order |
| MLB | 162 | Win percentage | No Game 163 since 2022; broken by head-to-head record |
| NPB | 143 | Win percentage, ties excluded | No tiebreaker game. Central: wins, then head-to-head win percentage, then league (non-interleague) win percentage, then previous season rank. Pacific starts with head-to-head win percentage |
In 2021 KT and Samsung played a tiebreaker game for first in the KBO. While two clubs can still end tied for first in the KBO, "Not clinched" is the right setting. In a league that uses head-to-head record, such as MLB, choose "We win ties" once you know our team holds that edge, and the magic number drops by one.
Clinch on your own and the Japanese "magic"
In Japanese baseball coverage, "magic" is explained as the number of wins that settles the title no matter what other teams do. The calculator's "Clinch on our own" figure follows the same idea: it counts the wins that make us first even if every other team wins out, and shows "Not possible" if that is more than the games we have left.
The two figures are usually equal. On Sep 21, 2026 in the NPB Central League, Hanshin (73-58-1) had a magic number of 10 against Yomiuri (73-59-2) and also a clinch on its own at 10 wins. They separate when the teams' tie counts differ, because the denominators of the two win percentages then differ. If we have more ties, one of our wins weighs slightly more than one of their losses, so the combined number needed to cover every split can exceed the number of wins we need alone. If winning out is not enough by itself, the own-clinch figure reads "Not possible" while a magic number remains.
Common mistakes
- Ignoring ties in the formula: leaving ties out of the old formula counts the rival's tied games as games it can still win, which inflates the magic number. On Oct 5, 2026 KT had already clinched, yet the classic formula still showed 5.
- Using games behind: games behind, (win gap + loss gap) ÷ 2, shows the current gap but does not reflect games left or ties.
- Using only the current second-place team: a team with more games left can fall away later. Enter every team and the calculator picks the reference.
- Counting a head-to-head game once: when we beat the second-place team, that is one win for us and one loss for them at once, so the magic number falls by 2.
- Ignoring the tiebreak rule: if a tie would be settled by a tiebreaker game, equal percentages do not clinch anything. If we hold the tiebreak, the magic number is one lower.
- Reading the magic number as wins needed: a magic number of 8 does not mean we need 8 wins. It means our wins plus their losses must reach 8. For wins alone, read the "Clinch on our own" figure.
Limits
- Remaining head-to-head schedules are not entered: the calculator compares teams two at a time, so it cannot know that rivals must take wins from each other in the games they still play. That kind of check needs the full remaining schedule and is known as the baseball elimination problem (Schwartz 1966, solved with maximum flow). On Sep 10, 2026 the Blue Jays (73-74, 15 games left) could still pass the Rays (87-59) and the Yankees (84-62) one at a time. But the Rays and Yankees still had 4 games against each other, so both could not finish at 87 wins or fewer. So even at their best of 88 wins the Blue Jays could not finish first alone; only an 88-win tie was left, and that comes down to tiebreakers. MLB's standings data marked the Blue Jays eliminated (E) that day, while this calculator shows an elimination number of 2. An elimination number above 0 can therefore hide a team that is already out.
- Only the race for first place: playoff berths, such as a top-5 finish in the KBO or MLB wild cards, involve combinations of many teams and are not calculated here.
- One tiebreak setting for all rivals: in reality head-to-head records differ by opponent, and rules change when three or more teams tie. If you do not know, "Not clinched" is the safest choice.
- Games left are the season length minus games played: if teams end up playing different numbers of games, for example when rained-out games are never made up, the result can be off.
- Rules can change: game counts and tie rules are those of the 2026 season. The NPB tie rules come from a Japanese media explainer, not the NPB's own rule text.
As of The formulas and league rules were checked on 2026-10-22 against the MLB Glossary, the official KBO site and Japanese explainers. The example standings were recounted on 2026-10-22 from the KBO record room's daily standings, the MLB Stats API and game results on Sports Navi.
Sources
- 01MLB.com Glossary — Magic Number (MN)"Games remaining +1 - (Losses by second place team - losses by first place team)"; the second-place team in total losses is the barometer
- 02KBO — Game operation rules (Korean)144 games per team (16 against each club), tiebreaker game for 1st and 5th, head-to-head tiebreakers
- 03KBO record room — Daily team standings (Korean)Standings from Sep 27 to Oct 5, 2026; every row with ties has a percentage equal to W ÷ (W + L)
- 04Etoday — KT clinches first place in the 2026 regular season (Korean)Oct 6, 2026; KT clinched first on Oct 5 at 86 wins, 5 ties, 49 losses
- 05Namuwiki — 2026 KBO daily magic numbers (Korean)KT's magic number: 8 on Sep 27, 5 on Oct 1, 4 on Oct 3, 2 on Oct 4, checked against our calculation
- 06MLB Stats API — Standings on Sep 10, 2026NL West: Dodgers magic number 6; AL East: Blue Jays eliminated (E)
- 07MLB Stats API — Rays and Yankees remaining schedule4 games between them after Sep 11 (two on Sep 22, one each on Sep 23 and 24)
- 08CBS Sports — 2022 MLB playoffs: schedule, format and rulesNo Game 163 from 2022; ties are broken by head-to-head record
- 09Yakyu Tools — How NPB standings are decided (Japanese)NPB win percentage is W ÷ (W + L); Central and Pacific tiebreak orders; no tiebreaker game
- 10ABEMA — What is a magic number? (Japanese)The Japanese definition: how many more wins settle the title regardless of other teams' results
- 11Sports Navi — NPB schedule and results (Japanese)Game results used to count the 2026 NPB example standings through Sep 21
- 12Schwartz, B. L. (1966). Possible Winners in Partially Completed Tournaments. SIAM Review 8(3), 302–308The original paper on deciding mathematical elimination from the remaining schedule
- 13Princeton COS 226 — Baseball EliminationHow maximum flow is used to decide elimination
FAQ
How is a magic number calculated?
With no ties, it is games in the season + 1 − the leader's wins − the second-place team's losses. The MLB Glossary writes the same formula as games remaining + 1 − (losses by the second-place team − losses by the first-place team). On Sep 10, 2026 the Dodgers were 89-57 and the Padres 78-68, so 162 + 1 − 89 − 68 = 6, and MLB's standings data also showed 6.
Why do ties change the magic number?
The KBO and NPB use W ÷ (W + L), which leaves ties out. On Oct 5, 2026 KT was 86-49-5 and Samsung 82-54-3. Even if Samsung won all 5 remaining games, 87 ÷ 141 = .617, and if KT lost all 4 of its remaining games, 86 ÷ 139 = .619, so KT had clinched. The classic formula (145 − 86 − 54) still showed 5.
What is the elimination (tragic) number?
It is the number of our losses plus their wins after which the other team can no longer be caught, even if it loses every remaining game. At 0 there is no path left above that team. The calculator shows the elimination number for whichever entered team reaches 0 first.
How is clinching on your own different from the magic number?
The magic number adds our wins and the rival's losses. Clinching on your own is the wins we need if every other team wins all its remaining games. Japanese baseball's "magic" is explained as how many wins settle the title regardless of other results, which is closer to the clinch-on-your-own figure. On Sep 27, 2026 KT had 8 for both.
Is it enough to look at the second-place team?
Not always. A third-place team with fewer losses or more games left can fall away later. The MLB Glossary says the second-place team in total losses is the barometer. The calculator finds a magic number against each team you enter, uses the largest for first place and names that team.
How are ties in the standings decided?
It depends on the league. In the KBO, two clubs tied for first play a tiebreaker game, and with three or more it goes to head-to-head wins, then head-to-head runs, then previous season rank. MLB has had no Game 163 since 2022 and uses head-to-head record. The NPB has no tiebreaker game; the Central looks at wins first, the Pacific at head-to-head percentage. If our team holds the tiebreak, pick "We win ties" and the magic number can drop by one.
Does beating the second-place team cut the magic number by 2?
Yes. A head-to-head win is one win for us and one loss for them, so it counts twice. A tie can cut it too. On Oct 4, 2026 KT tied and Samsung lost, and KT's KBO magic number fell from 4 to 2. A Samsung loss alone, or a KT tie alone, would have made it 3.
Can MLB.com show a team eliminated while the calculator does not?
Yes. MLB's standings note says elimination numbers account for remaining head-to-head schedules and tiebreaker scenarios, while this calculator compares two teams at a time. On Sep 10, 2026 the Blue Jays (73-74) could pass the Rays (87-59) and the Yankees (84-62) one at a time, but those two had 4 games left against each other and could not both finish at 87 wins or fewer, so the Blue Jays had no path to first place alone (only an 88-win tie, settled by tiebreakers). MLB marked the Blue Jays eliminated (E) that day; the calculator shows 2.