If you lose a fraction L, you need a rise of L ÷ (1 − L) to break even
Say $10,000 shrinks to $7,000. That is a 30% loss, but getting from $7,000 back to $10,000 takes $3,000 ÷ $7,000, a rise of 42.86%. After a loss the amount that has to grow again is smaller, so a gain equal to the percentage you lost never gets you back to where you started.
The calculator above takes your starting capital and what it is worth now (or just the loss) and shows the rise you need and the amount you are short. If you add selling costs and a yearly return, it also gives the rise needed to actually get your capital back in cash and a rough recovery time. In daily-close mode it assumes you bought everything on the earliest date and lays out cumulative profit or loss, the drawdown from each peak and the rise still needed to break even in a table and charts.
Why it helps to measure the distance back
After a loss, many people think "I am down 30%, so I only need 30%". The gap is small for small losses and grows fast for large ones: lose 50% and you need a 100% rise, lose 80% and you need 400%. Morningstar defines maximum drawdown as the decline of an investment from its peak to its trough during a specific period, and that is the other number this calculator tracks.
- Before deciding whether to keep holding: knowing how far up you have to go, and how many years that takes at an ordinary yearly return, keeps expectations realistic.
- When setting a loss limit: the table of needed rises shows where recovery becomes steeply harder, so you can check whether a limit you set in advance is still a recoverable one.
- When reviewing what happened: enter the daily closes and you get the biggest slide from a peak (maximum drawdown) and its dates, which tells you whether the loss came in one crash or over many days.
How it is calculated
- Loss L = 1 − current value ÷ starting capital
- Rise needed to break even = 1 ÷ (1 − L) − 1 = L ÷ (1 − L)
- Rise needed with selling costs s = 1 ÷ ((1 − L) × (1 − s)) − 1
- Amount short of your capital = capital ÷ (1 − s) − current value
- Recovery time (months) = 12 × ln(1 + needed rise) ÷ ln(1 + yearly return), rounded up
In the example where $10,000 became $7,000, a total selling cost of 0.5% (an illustration, not a rule for any country) lifts the needed rise from 42.86% to 43.58% and the amount short from $3,000 to $3,050.25. To end up with $10,000 in cash after paying the costs, the value has to climb a little above $10,000. Recovery time assumes the same return every year and is the first month you touch your capital: at 7% a year, 42.86% takes 64 months (5 years 4 months).
Needed rise and recovery time by loss
These values leave out selling costs. Recovery time is the first month you reach your capital if the yearly return is the same every year.
| Loss | Rise needed | 5% a year | 7% a year | 10% a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| −5% | +5.26% | 1 year 1 month | 10 months | 7 months |
| −10% | +11.11% | 2 years 2 months | 1 year 7 months | 1 year 2 months |
| −20% | +25% | 4 years 7 months | 3 years 4 months | 2 years 5 months |
| −30% | +42.86% | 7 years 4 months | 5 years 4 months | 3 years 9 months |
| −40% | +66.67% | 10 years 6 months | 7 years 7 months | 5 years 5 months |
| −50% | +100% | 14 years 3 months | 10 years 3 months | 7 years 4 months |
| −60% | +150% | 18 years 10 months | 13 years 7 months | 9 years 8 months |
| −70% | +233.33% | 24 years 9 months | 17 years 10 months | 12 years 8 months |
| −80% | +400% | 33 years | 23 years 10 months | 16 years 11 months |
| −90% | +900% | 47 years 3 months | 34 years 1 month | 24 years 2 months |
Each extra 10 percentage points of loss adds a growing amount to the rise you need. From 10% to 20% it adds 13.89 points, from 40% to 50% it adds 33.33 points, and from 70% to 80% it adds 166.67 points. Any loss above 30% takes more than five years to recover even at 7% a year.
Loss and maximum drawdown from daily closes
Daily-close mode assumes you bought everything at the earliest closing price and works out four figures for each day. Versus entry day is the total change from the first close, versus previous day is that day's change, versus peak is the distance below the highest close so far, and To break even is the rise from that day's close back to the entry-day close. The largest fall from a peak is the maximum drawdown (MDD).
The table below is the calculator's "Drop, then rebound" example with $10,000. The price bounced from the low on 9/4, but on the last day it still needs 9.89% to break even.
| Date | Close | Vs. previous day | Vs. entry day | Value | To break even |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | 50 | — | 0% | $10,000 | — |
| 2026-09-02 | 47 | −6% | −6% | $9,400 | +6.38% |
| 2026-09-03 | 44 | −6.38% | −12% | $8,800 | +13.64% |
| 2026-09-04 | 42.5 | −3.41% | −15% | $8,500 | +17.65% |
| 2026-09-07 | 44.8 | +5.41% | −10.4% | $8,960 | +11.61% |
| 2026-09-08 | 46.2 | +3.13% | −7.6% | $9,240 | +8.23% |
| 2026-09-09 | 45.5 | −1.52% | −9% | $9,100 | +9.89% |
In this example the first day has the highest close, so versus peak equals versus entry day and the maximum drawdown is −15% on 9/4. If a higher peak appeared along the way, versus peak would be deeper than versus entry day, and the "Back to the highest close" line in the results would show the rise needed to regain that peak.
Why going up and down alone shrinks your money
Falling and then rising by the same percentage does not bring you back. Fall x, rise x, and you end at (1 − x) × (1 + x) = 1 − x², so you are down by x². The SEC's investor bulletin on leveraged and inverse ETFs gives a plain example: an index at 1,000 loses 100 points on Day 1, a 10 percent loss that leaves it at 900, then rises 10 percent on Day 2 to 990, so over the two days it lost 1 percent.
| Move each way | After one round trip | After ten round trips |
|---|---|---|
| ±5% | −0.25% | −2.47% |
| ±10% | −1% | −9.56% |
| ±20% | −4% | −33.52% |
| ±30% | −9% | −61.06% |
The calculator's "Up and down" example (+10%, −10%, twice) has a simple average daily move of 0%, yet the compound average is −0.5% and the last close is 1.99% below the entry price. In the results line "Average daily move (simple / compound)", the wider the gap between the two, the more you have lost to the swings.
Selling costs
To measure the rise needed to get your capital back in cash, include what is taken when you sell. Enter the broker's selling commission and any transaction tax your country charges on a sale, added together as one percentage, in the "Selling costs" field. Check the current rates with your broker or your tax authority, because they differ by country and by product. Capital gains tax applies only to profit, and there is no profit at the moment you get your capital back, so it does not belong in this field.
Common mistakes
- Assuming a rise equal to the loss is enough: after a 30% loss you need 42.86%, not 30%, to break even.
- Using the original capital after buying more: extra purchases change both your capital and your average cost. If you added to the position, use the Stock/Crypto DCA Calculator to find the new average cost and the rise to break even.
- Mixing prices from before and after a split: if there was a split, reverse split or similar adjustment, enter split-adjusted closes so the drawdown is not distorted.
- Reading recovery time as a promise: yearly returns vary and prices can fall further. The time bars only say "if this return continued".
- Treating a leveraged fund's multi-day return as a multiple of the index: a product that tracks a multiple of the daily return can lose more than that multiple when the index swings up and down over several days.
Limits and cautions
- The calculation assumes you bought the whole amount on the first day and held it. It leaves out extra purchases, partial sales, dividends, interest and other cash flows.
- If you enter weekly or monthly closes, read “vs. previous day” as the change from the line above and the average daily move as an average per line.
- The date axis in daily-close mode follows the order of the rows you entered (trading days). Gaps of several days between rows look like the same spacing.
- Pasting reads only the first date (year-month-day) on a line and the number right after it. If a table lists the open price first, as many price-history downloads do, move the close column next to the date before pasting.
- Results are for checking numbers and are not a recommendation to buy or sell. Everything is calculated in your browser, and when you change a value it is added to the address bar so you can reopen the same result.
Reference date The source passages cited here were checked against the original pages on 2026-10-12.
Sources
- 01U.S. SEC Investor.gov, Updated Investor Bulletin: Leveraged and Inverse ETFs2023-08-29. "If the index drops by 100 points on Day 1, it has a 10 percent loss and a resulting value of $900." On Day 2 the index rises 10 percent to $990, a 1 percent loss over the two days
- 02Morningstar, Maximum Drawdown"Maximum drawdown measures the decline of an investment from its peak (high) to trough (low) during a specific period of time."
Frequently asked questions
Why is the rise needed to break even different from the loss?
Because after a loss the amount that has to grow again is smaller. If 100 becomes 70 you lost 30, but earning 30 back from 70 takes 30 ÷ 70 = 42.86%. For a loss L the formula is L ÷ (1 − L), and the gap widens quickly as the loss grows.
Does a 50% loss really need a 100% gain?
Yes. If 100 becomes 50, you have to earn 50 again on a base of 50, and 50 ÷ 50 = 100%. Every extra point of loss makes the climb back steeper, which is why limiting losses early matters.
Can I enter share prices instead of amounts?
Yes. The needed rise is a ratio, so a price per share gives the same result. Put your average purchase price in the capital field and the current price in the value field, and read the amount short as a price difference per share.
How is recovery time calculated?
It assumes the money grows at the same yearly return r every year, and finds the first month you reach your capital: 12 × ln(1 + needed rise) ÷ ln(1 + r), rounded up. A 30% loss (42.86% needed) takes 64 months, or 5 years 4 months, at 7% a year. Real returns differ every year, so this is not a forecast.
What is maximum drawdown (MDD)?
It is the largest decline from a peak to a later low over a period. In daily-close mode the calculator measures each day's fall from the highest close so far and shows the largest one as the maximum drawdown.
Why do I lose money if the price only went up and down?
Falling and rising by the same percentage leaves you below where you started. Down 10% then up 10% is a 1% loss, and down 20% then up 20% is a 4% loss, so 100 becomes 96. This is also why the simple and compound averages in daily-close mode differ.
What should I enter as selling costs?
Add the broker's selling commission and any transaction tax your country charges on a sale into one percentage. Check current rates with your broker or tax authority. Capital gains tax applies only to profit, and there is none at the point where you just get your capital back, so leave it out.
Does it account for extra purchases, dividends or splits?
No. It assumes the whole amount was bought on the first day and held. If extra purchases changed your average cost, use the Stock/Crypto DCA Calculator, and if there was a split, enter split-adjusted closing prices.